【馬哈迪姑里聯手，企圖結合朝野反對力量轟納吉下台？】

文字翻譯：張丹楓

大馬政壇最新消息，前首相馬哈迪已經和他的政治死敵東姑拉沙里會面，共同商討推翻納吉、振救國家的大計！

消息指出，老馬與姑里已經達成初步協議，準備結合朝野反對力量，在國會發動對納吉的不信任動議，一舉推翻納吉政權，然後朝野共商組成聯合政府，共同挽救危如累卵的國家經濟。

這項消息，無異是在馬來政壇投下一枚超級震撼彈！巫統兩大重量級元老聯手，將整合所有反對納吉的力量，尋求良機對納吉一擊致命！

根據巫統元老內部傳出的消息，馬哈迪與姑里已經在本周二（8月11日）會面長談，並且已經初步達成共識。若消息準確無誤，則再一次證明了在政治上是沒有永遠的朋友，也沒有永遠的敵人；大家可以為了利益權力而翻臉成仇，也可以為了對付共同的敵人而結盟。

馬哈迪對納吉的仇恨有多深，這個大家都懂；東姑拉沙里對納吉的憎恨，比馬哈迪有過之而無不及。熟悉巫統歷史的朋友一定還記得1987年巫統黨爭；當年馬哈迪領導的A隊當權派對壘東姑拉沙里與慕沙希旦領導的B對挑戰派勢力旗鼓相當，馬哈迪極有可能會被姑里和慕沙拉下馬；當時原本屬於B隊的彭亨州務大臣納吉臨陣倒戈倒向支持馬哈迪陣營；形同對姑里背後插刀，導致姑里的挑戰派功虧一簣，馬哈迪以區區43張多數票驚險保住巫統黨主席職位。當年納吉的背叛，是姑里胸口永遠的痛。

據說，導致兩大宿敵決定摒棄成見共同合作的最大原因，是兩人都對納吉胡作非為、對國家經濟造成致命傷害的行為大表不滿。一個對經濟完全是門外漢的人，卻堅持霸住財政部長高位不走，每年10月宣布的財政預算案在納吉手中已經淪為國際大笑話，因為每一次財政預算案宣布不到三個月，納吉又得在國會尋求增加撥款；這表示他根本不懂做什麼預算案，搞不好連預算案是什麼都不清楚。

在納吉拒絕體面下台，寧願丟光臉皮都死抱首相寶座不放的情況之下，馬哈迪與姑里唯一能做的，就是在國會尋求不信任動議投票將這死皮賴臉的臭雞攆下台。

這兩位巫統元老的如意算盤，是結合朝野力量行事。他們盤算民聯反對黨在國會222個席次里擁有87個國會議席，估計這87張支持不信任動議的選票，加上國陣中那些越來越對納吉不滿的朋黨，包括那些怒火中燒的巫統國會議員，還有東馬兩州的主要盟黨如果也揭竿起義，那麼老馬和姑里就有信心獲得足夠支持票將納吉推翻。

然而，事實恐怕沒有想像的完美。伊斯蘭黨擁有的20個國會席能否全投反對納吉一票還未可知；再說，要說服國陣成員黨反納吉也不是一件容易的事。須知道巫統和國陣朋黨領袖大多數都拿過納吉的好處，要他們【恩將仇報】，這種事只有納吉做得出來，其他臉皮不夠厚的大概心裡都很掙扎一下。

雖然巫統只擁有88個國會議席，但是國會議長班迪卡阿敏是出名反民主、經常踐踏議會民主的人，明顯也是被納吉的金錢政治收編的看門狗，他不太可能允許或接受反對陣營提出的不信任納吉動議。

因此，儘管反對納吉的聲浪越來越高，納吉用金錢政治堆砌起來的防火牆看來還能堅持一段日子。他就站在牆頭，公然對著300萬巫統黨員頭上撒尿，巫統黨員還是會把這屎尿當成天降甘露的。老馬想要像推翻阿都拉那樣推翻納吉，看來還得繼續努力。

Malaysia’s Mahathir & Razaleigh Teaming Up to Sink Najib

Once-bitter rivals seek nonpartisan unity government as a way out of crisis

Malaysia’s deteriorating political situation has driven two once-implacable foes – former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad and his onetime rival for UMNO party leadership Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah – together to try to form a unity government to remove current Prime Minister Najib Razak.

「There is a leadership crisis in Malaysia and the consensus is that only one candidate can end it,」 said a longtime friend of Razaleigh who played a role in setting up a meeting between the two figures. 「That is Ku Li [Razaleigh’s nickname], the only solution. The question is how to put together the mechanics of how it is to be done.」

Sources in Kuala Lumpur say Najib has dug in his heels and refuses to entertain the idea of stepping down voluntarily. It is believed he has threatened to bring down other politicians and officials with him if he is forced out.

Friends and associates of Razaleigh have been trying for weeks to persuade him to join the effort to oust Najib. But the fact that the former enemies within the United Malays National Organization would seek common cause is an indication of how deep Malaysia’s political and economic crisis has become.

Mahathir and Razaleigh met Tuesday, August 11, the source said, adding that the biggest hurdle with be forcing a vote of no-confidence in the parliament.

The two believe they would have unanimous support from the opposition Pakatan Rakyat coalition, which holds 89 of the 222 parliamentary seats although some Parti Islam se-Malaysia votes would be questionable after the fundamentalist Islamic party split earlier this year. Attempts to reach Pakatan officials were unsuccessful.

Parliamentary dysfunction

The ruling Barisan Nasional holds 132 seats, but UMNO has only 88 of them. A general election is not due until April 2018 – unless events overtake Najib’s defenses.

「The parliament is dysfunctional in that the speaker [Pandikar Amin Mulia] is not a democratic speaker,」 said the source, a constitutional lawyer. 「He controls parliament on behalf of the ruling coalition instead of being a neutral speaker. He won』t allow a vote of confidence on an incumbent prime minister who has lost the confidence of the people.」

However, with rank-and-file sentiment growing restive in the face of a financial scandal linking Najib to irregularities in the 1Malaysia Development Berhad investment fund, some of the component parties in the BN could be open to changing horses. The Malaysian Chinese Association, for instance, has grown disenchanted with UMNO’s increasing embrace of fundamentalist Islamic views and Malay-first rhetoric. Christian parties in East Malaysia could also be up for grabs.

How much real clout the two elderly politicians have is unknown. Although Razaleigh, 78, has retained his seat in parliament, he has been out of a leadership position since 1987, when he challenged Mahathir for the premiership and lost in a battle that split UMNO and guaranteed their enmity. Mahathir, 90, remains a more potent force, but he has been attempting to bring down Najib for more than a year, largely without traction.

Declining fortunes

However, the economic situation may play as much of a role as politics in forcing the issue. Global Risk Insights, the international risk rating agency, warned on August 12 that the 1MDB scandal has 「shattered business confidence in Malaysia」 and that the government has been distracted as a result from dealing with economic issues like the impact of falling global oil prices on oil-dependent Malaysia’s government debt. Household debt is climbing.

The ringgit, having fallen through the psychologically important RM4:US$1 barrier, is one of the globe’s worst performing currencies. The raid on the currency from global traders appears to be picking up speed, with the ringgit weakening to RM4.25 to the US dollar before the central bank used enough reserves to drive it back down to RM4:03. Banks have begun to limit retail withdrawals to RM3,000 and currency traders say there is a shortage of foreign currencies as people seek safer havens in the dollar.

In the meantime, Najib may be losing his grip on UMNO. He still has the loyalty of a large number of the 191 divisional cadres, mostly through vast payments that provide them with electoral resources and jobs between elections, but the grass roots are another matter.

An extraordinary video went viral earlier this week, for example, of a young woman going postal on Najib during an UMNO women’s wing gathering in Langkawi, accusing Najib in a screeching voice of having 「urinated on the 3 million UMNO members. He needs to be sent for medical treatment.」 The video has been seen by hundreds of thousands of people.

Sleazy trail

Bersih, the reform NGO, has ordered what it hopes will be a massive rally for August 29. Mahathir is urging people to attend and has suggested they bring water bottles to mop up the tear gas. The police have threatened to block the rally.

The focal point of the whole mess is 1MDB, which was set up as a state-backed investment fund in 2009 with the advice of Jho Taek Low, the young Penang-born tycoon and friend of the Najib family. In the intervening years, the fund, as a result of what appears to be extraordinarily bad management, has run up debts that by some estimates have reached RM50 billion, an unknown amount of that unfunded.

In early July, the Sarawak Report and the Wall Street Journal reported that US$680 million was transferred from unknown sources through a complex web of transactions to Najib’s personal bank account at AmBank in Kuala Lumpur prior to the 2013 general election. Sarawak Report has released graphic details on the flow of millions of ringgit through banks, companies and government agencies linked to 1MDB into accounts held by Jho Low, as he is known, and other accounts.

Najib has said the money was not for his personal use, leaving others to hint that it came from Middle Eastern sources to be used in the 2013 election. But sources have told Asia Sentinel that at least RM1billion flowed out from Najib’s accounts overseas. Neither the source of the money nor its final destination is clear. Certainly, given the relatively small amounts needed to fund electoral races in Malaysia, it would seem impossible to spend such a huge amount

On his blog, Che Det, Mahathir ridiculed the idea that the money came from unknown Arab sources, saying 「his claim that Arabs donated billions is what people describe as hogwash or bullshit. Certainly I don』t believe it and neither can the majority of Malaysians if we go by the comments on the social media. The world had a good laugh.」

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