最新消息！巫統內部忽然盛傳，納吉正考慮明年三月舉行閃電全國大選！

文：張丹楓

已經眾叛親離、陷入四面楚歌絕境的納吉，唯一自我救贖的辦法，只剩下閃電大選這最後一招！

這項傳聞已經獲得不少巫統中央領袖默認，而巫統已經下令國陣所有成員黨積極備戰，盡快完成每個國州選區候選人的遴選工作。

這項消息令許多政治觀察家感覺意外，但經過詳細分析，卻又合乎情理。

事實上，對政治敏感的人也都發覺，國陣的幾個唯巫統馬首是瞻的附庸小黨如馬華、民政、印度國大黨等等，也都紛紛進行部署，挑選相關選區候選人備戰閃電大選了。

據說，被一馬醜聞纏身的納吉也想速戰速決，通過提早舉行下屆全國大選來進一步鞏固他的領導地位。

促使納吉萌生提早舉行全國大選的原因，有下列五點。

其一：反對黨氣勢大減，一盤散沙無法與團結的國陣抗衡。

國內反對黨陣營鬼打鬼的分裂情況明顯，相較於2008年及2013年全國大選那種同仇敵愾的氣勢已經不可同日而語；公正黨、伊斯蘭黨、民主行動黨、誠信當之間互相扯後腿、槍口對準內部自己人的內鬥局面越演越烈。而國陣則顯得更團結一致，此消彼長之下，反對黨已經不成氣候；正是國陣一鼓作氣擊潰反對黨陣線的天賜良機。

其二：砂州勝選與兩場國會補選勝利，令國陣擁有了天時地利。

砂拉越州大選國陣大勝，加上雪州大港及霹靂州江沙兩場國會補選反對黨兵敗如山倒，大大加強了納吉的信心。

其三：趁馬哈迪安華結盟尚未成型，將新的反對黨陣線獵殺於襁褓中。

納吉不願給予馬哈迪慕尤丁新成立的政黨足夠時間成長。尤其在馬哈迪與安華的破冰會面提振反對黨陣營士氣的情況之下，納吉肯定不願給反對黨有任何重新整合團結一致的機會，更不願看到馬哈迪慕尤丁與安華成為反對黨陣營共主、領導壯大反對黨陣線對抗國陣。趁他們立足未穩之際提早舉行閃電大選，不失為上策。

其四：納吉快刀斬亂麻，企圖讓他的政治生命起死回生，

飽受一馬公司貪污醜聞、個人貪腐形象敗壞的納吉，更想憑藉閃電大選趁機剷除巫統黨內所有反對他的勢力；透過大選營造《人民支持我繼續領導國家》的政治生態；再次掌權5年，可以更加肆無忌憚的大貪特貪。

其五：明年2017年正值馬來西亞獨立60週年；三大民族爭取獨立的愛國操正好被納吉好好利用來爭取國陣選票。

根據巫統內部消息，明年三月是否舉行閃電大選的問題已經被提交到巫統最高理事會討論。據悉，與會的最高理事基本上沒有異議，最後決定權由納吉掌握。而巫統已經下令地方上的巫統區部支部領袖深入民間爭取選票，尤其必須努力遊說年輕的選民支持國陣。

事實上，對政治敏感的人也都發覺，國陣的幾個唯巫統馬首是瞻的附庸小黨如馬華、民政、印度國大黨等等，也都紛紛進行部署，挑選相關選區候選人備戰閃電大選了。

納吉舉行閃電大選的勝算雖然高，但是，反對黨真的如巫統眼中認定的那樣不堪一擊了嗎？

或者，說的白一點，國陣已經積極備戰大選，反對黨呢？準備工作開始了嗎？還是說繼續忙著內鬥？內鬥比鬥國陣更重要？

General Election in March 2017?

Signs indicate that Prime Minister Najib Razak may call for elections next year, before the opposition unifies and to ride on the patriotic mood during the 60th Merdeka anniversary.

KUALA LUMPUR: There is speculation that the general election could be held as early as next March.

「March has been talked about,」 Bloomberg quoted an Umno division leader from a southern state, who asked not to be identified, as saying. 「And why not? The opposition is not together. We are ready as we can be for elections.」

Another Umno division leader from a different state also told Bloomberg, March was being discussed.

A Bloomberg report said Prime Minister Najib Razak and senior officials of Umno – the backbone of the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) – were exhorting members to meet potential voters, especially the younger ones.

One factor that could tilt the balance for a snap poll is the fractured opposition, which lost this year in two by-elections and in the Sarawak state elections.

But some analysts say weakening growth and the spotlight of global probes into billions allegedly embezzled from state investment company 1Malaysia Development Bhd are reasons for Najib to delay.

「Ideally, they would want to hold elections when people feel they are materially better off,」 Sholto Byrnes, a senior fellow at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia, was quoted as saying.

「Having it at a time when oil and commodity prices are so low, when there’s been a lot of fluctuation in the ringgit, negative talk about the economy — I would feel from those points of view, it’s a riskier time to hold elections sooner.」

Ooi Kee Beng, the deputy director of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, was quoted as saying: 「Given how pressurised Najib is by events and by the scandals surrounding him, the need to strategise instead of wait is great. It should not surprise anyone that elections are called sometime next year.」

The BN may also want to tap the mood of patriotism as Malaysia commemorates its 60th year of independence next year. In Singapore, Bloomberg said, the ruling party retained power with a bigger majority in 2015 amid massive festivities for its 50th anniversary.

For the last election in May 2013, Najib waited until the last minute to dissolve parliament, after two years of hints, Bloomberg noted.

As he vacillated, the opposition grew stronger, giving the BN its worst result in more than five decades in power, including its first-ever loss of the popular vote.

The tables, said the report, had since turned. Infighting and policy differences have torn the opposition alliance apart, while the BN secured bigger wins in the Sarawak state polls in May and two by-elections in June.

And this happened while Najib was battling graft allegations and efforts by former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad to remove him.

The report noted that there were tentative signs the opposition was attempting to unify, and that Najib might not want to wait for them to try.

Najib’s office didn』t reply to a request for comments on the possibility of an early vote, while an Umno spokesman wouldn』t elaborate on the speculation, Bloomberg said.

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