納吉逐漸失控的政權：丁加奴州政權的動盪，恐掀全國骨牌效應，將成巫統分裂垮台的導火線？
雖然納吉已經宣布丁加奴州務大臣留任，但明眼人一看都知道這只是權宜之計，納吉絕對不希望在砂拉越州大選投票之前，西馬出現任何動蕩局面，但是丁州大臣下台已經是時間的問題了。
剃人頭者，人亦剃其頭？數年前納吉上台時以骯髒手段從民聯手中奪取霹靂州政權；今天他會不會自食惡果？同樣的奪權戲碼將在丁加奴州重現？國陣州政府將垮台？因果循環，報應不爽哪。
隨著丁加奴州蘇丹史無前例的遞奪州務大臣阿末拉吉夫所有封銜、公開表達對大臣的不滿之後，丁州州務大臣換人，看來已經是板上釘釘的事；就算納吉介入斡旋也無法力挽狂瀾。
妙的是，丁加奴州的政局現況，與2009年時候的霹靂州政局頗有異曲同工之處。
當年的霹靂民聯州政府，與在野的巫統實力不相上下，民聯州政府只是以區區兩個多數議席執政。納吉上台擔任首相之初，便成功以金錢政治策反了民聯政府三個州議員，令州政權變天。儘管被全民罵翻了，但是臉皮特厚的納吉和國陣政府根本不把道德當一回事。
如今的丁加奴州政局同樣微妙。32個州議席當中，國陣巫統以剛剛過半的17席執政，而伊斯蘭黨奪得14席，另外一席在公正黨手中。
這意味著，任何的政局動盪中，只要國陣有兩個州議員離開，丁州執政權即刻垮台；這使得國陣丁州政權極度不穩定。
而不穩定的最大因素來自前任州務大臣阿末塞益。他是丁州巫統的肉中刺；他是馬哈迪對付納吉的急先鋒之一。
簡單的說，阿末塞益從來就不是納吉陣營的人。
2008年全國大選，當巫統重新執政丁加奴州時，巫統中央原本屬意原任州務大臣伊德里斯祖索夫繼續出任大臣，但卻遭受丁州蘇丹強烈反對。蘇丹心目中的人選是基惹區州議員阿末塞益。縱然伊德里斯祖索夫獲得22個巫統州議員支持也沒用，巫統不得不遵從蘇丹意願，改由阿末塞益出任州務大臣；而丁州巫統也從那時開始出現裂痕。
2014年，在納吉強力打壓之下，阿末塞益被迫辭去州務大臣，但當時他恫言將帶領兩名州議員離開巫統；若真如此，則丁州巫統州議員將從17名減少到剩下14名，政權將一夜之間垮台。納吉星夜赴丁州安撫阿末塞益，軟硬兼施迫使阿末塞益心不甘情不願的打消政變計劃；但丁州政爭並未因此落幕，暗流依舊洶湧。
今年3月，阿末塞益忽然發難，在丁州議會提出對州務大臣投不信任動議；雖然阿末拉吉夫在議長大力協助阻擋提案之下有驚無險過關，但是他由於涉嫌在未通知州行政議會的情形下將丁州三座小島贈送給極具爭議性的印度伊斯蘭宗教司，終於惹怒蘇丹親自出馬，遞奪他所有封銜。估計納吉也無法保住他的州務大臣了。
而一馬公司醜聞和26億贓款醜聞纏身的納吉，早已失去巫統基層的信任與支持，目前只能依靠金錢政治收買巫統領袖保護相位的納吉，明顯已經無法掌控全國政局。丁州州務大臣下台已經進入倒數計時，納吉根本保不住他的人了。而丁州巫統的分崩離析，會不會引發骨牌效應，在全國巫統基層延燒、一發不可收拾，成為壓垮納吉相位的最後一根稻草？
NAJIB CANNOT CONTROL TERENGGANU: UMNO CRACKS START TO SHOW
Sultan Mizan Zainal Abidin of Terengganu has ordered to strip all the titles conferred to menteri besar Ahmad Razif, adding elements of uncertainty to the state politics.
It is unusual for a sultan to strip the title conferred to an MB, and this to a very large extent reflects his royal highness' displeasure with the MB. As such, Razif's position becomes precarious and with the prime minister now stepping in to intervene, things have yet to clear as of this moment.
BN managed only 17 out of 32 state seats in the last election while PAS bagged 14 and PKR one. BN retained the state's administration with a mere two-seat majority, and it will only take a handful of state reps to jump ship to bring about an administration change. The current split and division within Umno in Terengganu will add a further dose of uncertainty to the state administration.
Such a split could be traced back to 2008 when Umno intended to name incumbent Idris Jusoh as MB but the Sultan preferred Kijal state assemblyman Ahmad Said. Although Idris had the support of 22 Umno reps, he eventually had to give way to Ahmad Said, and the crack began to take shape from then on.
Ahmad Said quit the MB post in 2014 and threatened to bring two other state reps with him to leave Umno, sparking a new administrative crisis. Although BN subsequently managed to keep the state administration following a decision by the trio to return to the team, the same has invariably exposed the vulnerability of BN administration in Terengganu.
Last month, Ahmad Said tabled a motion of no confidence against Razif in the state assembly, sending yet another round of shockwave in the state's politics. Although the latter managed to shake off the crisis thanks to the staunch support of 15 Umno reps and the rejection of the no-confidence motion by the Speaker, it nevertheless highlights the fact that the rift within Umno is far from being resolved despite the MB change. In its stead. there are signs the crisis is deepening.
With Terengganu now plunged into a new political crisis, rumors have it that the MB might soon be replaced. It is essential that the BN leadership handle this matter cautiously and seek feasible political channels to put down the storm. Mishandling of this issue could further divide the state Umno.
From the perspectives of public interest, the Terengganu political crisis has to be put to an end as soon as possible. Compared to a leadership swap, the interest of the people should come way more important.
Before the crisis is settled completely, it is utterly important for the government to ensure that state administration runs without any disruption or the state's development would be compromised.
轉載請註明來源：今天頭條