今日重磅！比特幣大崩盤！全球投資虛擬貨幣者哀嚎：投資兩萬隨時跌剩兩千！發財夢碎，慘變破產！

比特幣（Bitcoin）情況不妙？外媒分析，比特幣價格在短短一個月內幾乎腰斬，已現崩盤趨勢，認為該虛擬貨幣將持續下跌，難再大漲，估價格底部2000美元。

去年12月中，比特幣期貨一度狂飆至19600美元高點，之後便劇烈震盪。上週三，比特幣收盤跌破9500美元，而後又反彈。Coindesk資料顯示，比特幣目前報價約在11410美元。

MarketWatch專欄作家Howard R. Gold指出，根據歷史經驗，全球幾次大型股市泡沫後，跌幅約在80%~90%。若以比特幣換算，一旦跌幅達80%，比特幣將跌到4000美元，若跌90%，將下滑至2000美元或更低，再看看以往的崩盤與空頭市場，比特幣可能好幾年都無法東山再起，建議持有比特幣的投資人多少賣出一些，「因為比特幣已經崩跌，且情況可能會更糟」。

比特幣暴漲暴跌，「股神」巴菲特（Warren Buffett）和耶魯大學知名經濟學教授席勒（Robert Shiller）紛紛示警比特幣恐崩盤，不看好虛擬貨幣發展。華爾街大老Bleakley Advisory Group投資長Peter Boockvar也指出，比特幣總有一天會暴跌9成，跌回起漲點。

CNBC報導，Peter Boockvar表示，虛擬貨幣是個巨大泡沫，且泡泡已經開始漏氣，認為比特幣可能從目前的水準暴跌9成，未來一年內比特幣如果跌到1000~3000美元的話，不用太驚訝。這代表比特幣可能跌回2017年初水準，根據Coinbase資料顯示，比特幣價格目前約11475美元。

Peter Boockvar指出，美國聯准會（Fed）等央行實施寬鬆貨幣政策，是虛擬貨幣掀起熱潮的主因，隨著利率逐漸回歸正軌，虛擬貨幣也將跟著崩潰。

比特幣週三持續血洗式大跌，一度失守9,500美元關卡，下探9,429.64美元。在混亂氛圍下，2檔區塊鏈（blockchain）指數股票型基金（ETF）本周正式上市。不過在監管機關要求下，基金名稱皆被移除「區塊鏈」字眼。

2家美國基金公司週三各自推出區塊鏈相關ETF，搶搭虛擬貨幣與區塊鏈技術熱潮，不過2業者皆表示，美國證管會（SEC）在最後一刻要求ETF名稱必須刪除「區塊鏈」一詞，因為擔憂任何與比特幣與區塊鏈相關的名稱，會引發投機客的過度狂熱。

Reality Shares執行長艾爾文（Eric Ervin）表示，「你能理解SEC的觀點。許多投資散戶熱烈買進任何與區塊鏈有關的東西，卻沒有真正瞭解它。」

在SEC堅持下，Reality Shares推出的區塊鏈ETF名稱刪除區塊鏈一詞，更名為Reality Shares那斯達克次世代經濟ETF（Reality Shares Nasdaq NexGen Economy）ETF。另1家業者Amplify則將ETF更名為Amplify轉化資料共用ETF（Transformational Data Sharing ETF）。

Amplify和Reality Shares的ETF擬將買進投資區塊鏈技術的企業股票，例如IBM、晶片業者輝達（Nvidia）及金融業者如摩根大通。

其他擬推類似提案的ETF發行商，可能也須修改ETF名稱。Amplify執行長馬昆（Christian Magoon）指出，SEC的顧慮在於基金名稱若有「區塊鏈」一詞可能會誤導投資者，因為許多ETF所投資的公司，其營收主力根本不是來自區塊鏈。

馬昆說，「SEC的考量是要保護投資人。我們已經看見這個現象，企業只要把公司名稱加入區塊鏈字眼或宣布推出區塊鏈ETF，身價就水漲船高。」

The trend for bitcoin now is unmistakable — down, down, down.

Bitcoin has crashed. Bitcoin BTCUSD, +2.93% has lost half of its value in just over a month. This is not a 「correction」 ultimately leading to new highs. This is not fuel for contrarians. Plain and simple, bitcoin is falling and it won』t be getting up.

On Dec. 7, I wrote that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were in a full-fledged mania. Less than two weeks later, bitcoin futures XBTG8, +3.17% BTCF8, +3.82%   peaked at about $19,600 — and it’s been a gut-churning, upside-down roller coaster ride ever since. Last Wednesday, CME’s Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR) closed below $9,500. Bitcoin  has since bounced a bit — on Tuesday it traded above $11,000.

Bitcoin 「investors」 (or, to be more accurate, speculators) may be in denial, and reporters and analysts may be daunted by the complexities of blockchain technology. But the charts say that bitcoin is following the pattern of all manias and crashes since the Dutch went ga-ga over tulips in 1636-37.

How low could bitcoin go? For that, look at history. Crashes following the world’s biggest stock-market bubbles have resulted in share price declines of 80%-90%. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.61%  ultimately lost around 80% of its value after the dot-com bust, and so did Japan’s Nikkei NIK, -1.13%  when its bubble unraveled. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.16%   plunged 90% after the 1929 crash.

But remember, these were stock markets, which price in real earnings by real companies. Bitcoin has some external uses, but it reflects mostly what people will pay for it. That’s why silver SIH8, +1.21%   is the better comparison.

In the first instance, Texas tycoons Herbert and Nelson Bunker Hunt,  convinced the inflation of the 1970s would decimate investments denominated in 「fiat」 currencies (sound familiar?), took some of their money, leveraged it up by borrowing from several big banks and brokerage firms, and bought massive amounts of silver. At one point they controlled an estimated two-thirds of all the silver contracts on the COMEX.

In January 1980, silver topped out around $50 an ounce. The Hunts』 silver 「investment」 was worth $6.6 billion — on paper. But then silver swiftly tumbled 50% and the Hunts couldn』t meet a margin call. Word spread on Wall Street, and on March 27, 1980, 「Silver Thursday,」 the Dow fell by as much as 3.5%.

Several big banks cobbled together a $1 billion rescue package for the Hunts, and a financial crisis was averted. The brothers lost $1.5 billion, eventually declared bankruptcy, and in a 1988 civil trial were convicted of attempting to illegally corner the silver market.

Despite some sharp countertrend rallies, silver kept falling from its peak. It hit bottom at around $4 an ounce in 1995 — a 92% decline — and didn』t begin its recovery until the 2000s. Silver’s bear market lasted more than 20 years.

A new bout of silver fever hit in April 2011, and again silver peaked near $50 an ounce. It bottomed below $14 in December 2015, a 72% drop.

Bitcoin buyers: do the math. An 80% decline would send bitcoin to $4,000 while a 90%+ drop would drive it down to $2,000 or below. That’s the more likely outcome in light of the cryptocurrency’s gigantic upward move and wild volatility. Given what happened in previous crashes and bear markets, bitcoin’s price could remain depressed for years.

That’s why those of you who own it should sell at least some of your holdings on big upturns. Bitcoin has crashed, and it’s going to get a lot worse.

來源：www.marketwatch.com

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